January 2016

Why every aspect of business is about to change ? ~ Article from Fortune

Investment Planning, Identifying multibaggers, Stocks , INvesting for 2016 Ideas

What better way to start new year than analyzing the past ? A Brilliant Summary of changes that is going to hit us one way or other sourced from www.fortune.com

Why every aspect of your business is about to change

Geoff Colvin

Imagine an economy without friction-a new world in which labor, information, and money move easily, cheaply, and almost instantly. Psst-it’s here. Is your company ready?

Cars bursting into flames are never a good thing. So when a Tesla Model S ran over a metal object in Kent, Wash., in October 2013 and burst into flames, owners, potential customers, investors, and company executives got worried. When the same thing happened a few weeks later in Smyrna, Tenn., federal regulators opened an investigation. We all know what happens next: a massive recall, costly repairs at dealerships nationwide, and a painful financial hit to the carmaker. Yet none of that occurred. The problem was that the Model S could lower its chassis at highway speed to be more aerodynamic, and if debris hit the car’s battery pack in just the wrong way, it could catch fire. So Tesla  beamed a software update to the affected cars, raising ground clearance at highway speed by one inch. The problem went away. Just four months after opening their investigation, the regulators closed it.

Using software and the mobile-phone network, Tesla avoided any need for a recall. It doesn’t have any dealerships; customers can configure and order a car online, and they can test-drive cars at company-owned showrooms. Tesla’s advanced electric technology is simpler than gas or diesel technology, so cars can be built with fewer employees and less capital. Combine those factors and here’s what happens: General Motors  creates about $1.85 of market value per dollar of physical assets, while Tesla creates about $11. GM creates $240,000 of market value per employee, while Tesla creates $2.9 million. You don’t get differences like that just by being more efficient. Tesla, though in the same business as GM, is a fundamentally different idea

 

GM is changing, but for now it’s still a 20th-century corporation. Tesla is a 21st-century corporation, built for sweeping new realities that change the rules of success. The big theme is the arrival of the long-heralded friction-free economy, a new world in which labor, information, and money move easily, cheaply, and almost instantly. Companies are forming starkly new, more fluid relationships with customers, workers, and owners; are rethinking the role of capital (as traditionally defined), finding they can thrive while owning less and less of it; are creating value in new ways as they reinvent R&D and marketing; and are measuring their performance by new metrics because traditional gauges no longer capture what counts. (more…)

December 2015

How to avoid investing in MisManaged Companies – Understand Balance Sheet

How to avoid investing in mismanaged companies, Misallocation of capital, Successful Investing Tips

Most investors keep looking for the magic investing mantra which can keep compounding returns. Many burn their fingers by getting into wrong companies. The first step of successful investing and to avoid investing in MisManaged Companies is to Understand Balance Sheet of a company.

A balance sheet, also known as a “statement of financial position,” reveals a company’s assets, liabilities and owners’ equity (net worth). The balance sheet, together with the income statement and cash flow statement, make up the cornerstone of any company’s financial statements. If you are a shareholder of a company, it is important that you understand how the balance sheet is structured, how to analyze it and how to read it.

Here is a great starting point from Investopedia to understand reading a balance sheet. Another article talks about the due diligence that should be followed before choosing a stock to invest is another checklist which the investors should always keep handy when doing a first cut analysis before giving a ‘pass’ and research further.

Bala writes about a wonderful article on Misallocation of capital  which gives examples of why to avoid investing in companies which misallocate capital.

When you start looking at a balance sheet, a quick first cut analysis can help you eliminate researching further if you come across these common account red flags…

The Indian stock market, in aggregate, carries a relatively high risk that a minority shareholder will not realize the value in a listed firm because the controlling shareholder (or promoter as they are known in India) will appropriate value for himself, leaving little on the table. The risk is higher relative to certain other stock markets mainly because of limited regulation. In addition, lax enforcement indirectly encourages such behavior. Kimi writes on how one can avoid such landmines in his elaborate article peppered with examples.

Successful investing is all about avoiding the companies/ sectors/ industries which are mismanaged and going aggressively after the good ones…As Charlie Munger famously said “Tell me where I’m going to die, that is, so I don’t go there.”…..

Happy Investing….

October 2013

Sensex Gainers and Losers over the last 1 year

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Here are the Sensex Gainers and Losers over the last 1 year. Prices are as of Oct 04 2013. Clearly the Pharma and IT sector has outperformed the others by leaps and bounds.

The Gainers in the Sensex pack are :

Company Name

Sun Pharma Inds.

Curr Price

600.6

Last 1 yr

349.2

% Change

71.99

TCS

2032.8

1315.05

54.58

Dr Reddys Lab

2368.55

1718

37.87

Tata Motors

349.75

274.2

27.55

Wipro

482.9

383.05

26.07

ITC

340.1

275.1

23.63

Bharti Airtel

328.15

269.55

21.74

Bajaj Auto

2119.1

1765.25

20.05

Cipla

438.1

366.4

19.57

Infosys

3015.45

2575.4

17.09

Hero MotoCorp

2032.85

1831.1

11.02

Hindustan Unilever

608.05

555.6

9.44

Sesa Sterlite

187.25

175

7

Maruti Suzuki

1427.65

1391.2

2.62

HDFC Bank

640.35

630.95

1.49

HDFC

798.65

788.2

1.33

Reliance Industries

853.4

852.75

0.08

Mahindra & Mahindra

859.15

859.05

0.01

The Losers in the Sensex pack are : (more…)

March 2013

Investing in Dividend Yield Stocks

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One of the most traditional form of investment, which involves identifying such stocks that are likely to give good dividends. The dividends get paid no matter what direction the stocks move and can provide a higher yield on investment in any market.

Hence, even if the market remains volatile, going ahead, an investor can still expect to get a decent return on investment. Such stocks can be identified by studying the dividend history, cash position, and macro economic condition.

Some of the stocks which have had a past record of good dividends are :

Company
 Price 01.03.2013
Yield
Dividend Per Share
FY10
FY11
FY12
Clariant Chemicals (I) Ltd.
552.15
11.01
25
30
60
HCL Infosystems Ltd.
31
8.7
7.8
7.9
3
SRF Ltd.
185.75
7.04
14
14
14.1
Gateway Distriparks Ltd.
128.95
4.44
3.5
6
6
VST Industries Ltd.
1579
3.85
30
45
65
TATA Steel Ltd.
341.1
3.29
8
12
12
Rural Electrification Corp
213.6
3.12
6.1
7.5
7.5
Power Finance Corporation
191.65
2.94
4.5
5.2
6
Karur Vysya Bank Ltd.
466.95
2.91
12
12.1
14
JK Bank
1282.2
2.57
22
26
33.5
Needless, to say one needs to use his own judgement before picking up stocks. So please consider your current investment scenario, risk profile before taking any actions.
Source : Geojit BNP Paribas

December 2012

Past 6 months Sensex stocks performance

Past 6 months (Jun thru Dec 2012) Sensex stocks performance  is shown below :

Gainers Curr Price 6 months back Change(Rs) Change%
Mahindra & Mahindra 949.9 680.1 269.8 39.67
ICICI Bank 1136.3 819.4 316.9 38.67
Maruti Suzuki 1474.4 1078.9 395.5 36.66
Bajaj Auto 2080.25 1549.4 530.85 34.26
HDFC 852.35 644.6 207.75 32.23
Cipla 404.05 305.6 98.45 32.22
HDFC Bank 688.7 534.4 154.3 28.87
Tata Motors 291.9 227 64.9 28.59
Larsen & Toubro 1638.2 1296.9 341.3 26.32
Sun Pharma Inds. 716.6 582.25 134.35 23.07
ITC 295.75 244.3 51.45 21.06
Dr Reddys Lab 1833.7 1555.05 278.65 17.92
Hindustan Unilever 518.15 440.75 77.4 17.56
Reliance Industries 839.2 715.55 123.65 17.28
Tata Power 104.75 92.15 12.6 13.67
Sterlite Inds. (I) 113.2 101.85 11.35 11.14
SBI 2320.15 2154.25 165.9 7.7
Coal India 353.95 330.95 23 6.95
GAIL India 347 333.25 13.75 4.13
BHEL 224.9 217.25 7.65 3.52
NTPC 152.7 148.4 4.3 2.9
Bharti Airtel 311.95 305.35 6.6 2.16

Clearly financial services/ interest sensitivities/ banking are outperforming in the hopes of reforms and expected rate cuts. Early 2013 more noise will emerge around the budget session and reforms. Overall, equity markets look poised for a steady journey northwards.

Most retail investors are skeptical of the up move in the markets over the past few months.  And are keen to move to debt products or Gold. Are they making a mistake, only time can tell. As of now, though, it is time to enjoy the joy ride upwards…

 

NSE Stocks which have outperformed the Nifty index!!!

Outperformers-Nifty-Sensex, Indian Stock Markets, Analysis, Research, Investing, Fundamental Analysis, Business Valuation,

Indian Stock markets have outperformed other asset classes over the past 1 year, and especially more so over the last 6 months.

So, which are the NSE stocks which have outperformed the Nifty index.

The above chart indicates broadly the Blue Chips in the following sectors have been out – performing  the index : Auto, Cement, Banks, Pharma, FMCG. 

The blue chip stocks in the following sectors which have underperformed and some have also given negative returns are : IT, Metals, Telecom. 

Are you invested in the markets? Because if not, you just missed a 45% (annualized) rally over the last 6 months. 

Happy Investing.

 

 

November 2012

Tara Jewels IPO Analysis

Tara Jewels IPO Analysis, Buy, Subscribe, Indian Jewelry Stocks, Gitanjali Jems, Rajesh Exports, Gold, .

Tara Jewels Limited is coming out with a 100% book building; initial public offering (IPO) of 79,77,778 equity shares of Rs 10 each in a price band Rs 225-230 per equity share. The issue will open on November 21, 2012 and will close on November 23, 2012.

  • Not more than 50% of the issue will be allocated to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), including 5% to the mutual funds. Further, not less than 15% of the issue will be available for the non-institutional bidders and the remaining 35% for the retail investors.
  • The issue opens for subscription on November 21, 2012 and closes on November 23, 2012.
  • The shares will be listed on BSE as well as NSE.
  • The face value of the share is Rs 10 and is priced 22.50 times of its face value on the lower side and 23.00 times on the higher side.
  • Book running lead managers to the issue are Enam Securities and ICICI Securities.
  • Compliance Officer for the issue is Amol Raje.

Profile of the company

Tara Jewels is an integrated player in the jewellery industry with experience ranging from designing to retailing of jewellery. It is conferred with the status of a Star Trading House by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India and have been the highest exporter in gems and jewellery sector for the years 2008-2009 and 2009-2010. The company’s business can be divided into three operations namely, manufacturing, exporting and retailing. Its portfolio of products includes gold, platinum, honeydium, pristinium and silver jewellery with or without studded precious and semi-precious stones. The products have presence across different price points and cater to customers across high-end, mid-market and value market segments.

The company has four manufacturing units, of which one is located in Panyu, China. The other three units are located in Mumbai out of which two units are situated in SEEPZ and one in MIDC. For the two months period ended May 31, 2012, Fiscal 2012, 2011 and 2010 the company has achieved an aggregate production of 554.77 kgs, 10,616.40 kgs, 4,753.25 kgs and 2,562.91 kgs of jewellery, respectively. The manufacturing units are spread over an area of 84,584 square feet employing 35 designers and 955 craftsmen, as on September 30, 2012.

It exports studded jewellery which is manufactured by it and by third party manufacturers. The company exports studded jewellery to jewellery chains including Christ Uhrean and Schmuck and retailers including Walmart. Tara Jewels primarily export to Australia, China, Canada, European Union, South Africa, UAE, UK and USA. In the European Union, the company export to 12 countries including Austria, Germany and Switzerland. The company’s income from export operations has grown at a CAGR of 19.77% from Fiscal 2010 to Fiscal 2012. For the two months period ended May 31, 2012, Fiscal 2012, 2011 and 2010, the income from export operations constitutes 78.82%, 80.90%, 80.99% and 97.59% of the company’s total income, respectively.

IPO Grading

CARE has assigned an ‘IPO Grade 3’, indicating average fundamentals, to the initial public issue of the company.

Proceeds is being used

  • To meet the expenses of establishing retail stores
  • For repayment or prepayment of loans; and
  • For general corporate purposes

Industry Overview

US is the world’s largest market for jewellery followed by China, India and the Middle East and in Europe, the UK and Italy are the largest consumers. (more…)

The Illusion of prediction ~ Hindsight Bias

The Illusion of prediction , Hindsight Bias, Financial Pundits, Predicting the stock markets, Stock trends

Everything makes sense in hindsight, a fact that financial pundits exploit every evening as they offer convincing accounts of the day’s events.  

And this Illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to  predict the future. The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained. This is especially true in the financial markets.

Value Investing

Quick Snapshot of Sensex Companies ~ TTM EPS & PE Ratios

 
Market Data
Company
Nov 09 Price(Rs)
FV
EPS (Rs)
PE(x)
 
 
 
BHEL
232.30
2.00
28.63
8.11
Bajaj Auto
1852.05
10.00
104.58
17.71
Bharti Airtel
275.30
5.00
16.46
16.72
Cipla
393.50
2.00
18.21
21.60
Coal India
346.25
10.00
13.01
26.61
Dr Reddys Lab
1768.30
5.00
50.67
34.90
GAIL India
355.50
10.00
29.12
12.21
HDFC
794.00
2.00
28.96
27.42
HDFC Bank
639.30
2.00
24.79
25.79
Hero MotoCorp
1907.60
2.00
113.81
16.76
Hindalco
113.30
1.00
9.79
11.57
Hindustan Unilever
529.80
1.00
16.55
32.01
ICICI Bank
1059.20
10.00
64.19
16.50
ITC
288.50
1.00
8.59
33.59
Infosys
2349.15
5.00
156.50
15.01
Jindal Steel & Power
382.45
1.00
19.68
19.44
Larsen & Toubro
1620.95
2.00
79.03
20.51
Mahindra & Mahindra
910.30
5.00
51.53
17.66
Maruti Suzuki
1464.65
5.00
51.80
28.27
NTPC
166.95
10.00
12.57
13.28
ONGC
257.10
5.00
28.47
9.03
Reliance Industries
788.60
10.00
57.29
13.76
SBI
2156.35
10.00
219.40
9.83
Sterlite Inds. (I)
100.30
1.00
3.33
30.08
Sun Pharma Inds.
694.50
1.00
16.71
41.56
TCS
1325.50
1.00
62.57
21.18
Tata Motors
280.65
2.00
6.69
41.95
Tata Power
101.20
1.00
4.99
20.29
Tata Steel
390.55
10.00
58.58
6.67
Wipro
370.60
2.00
21.50
17.24
 
Sensex TTM PE stands at ~20.  ~ Data Source Ace Equity
 
 

October 2012

Measures of Risk ~ Equity & Debt

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Measures of Risk, Performance, Mutual Funds , Stocks, Standard Deviation, Variance, Beta, Modified duration, Credit Risk, Interest Rate Risk, Weighted Average Maturity  ,Yield Spread,

Investors generally focus on the returns of any asset. They largely ignore the risk factors and most importantly are ignorant of the measures of risk. 

And so, the real Risk comes from not knowing what they are doing ~ Warren Buffett

This post talks about the measures of risks in equities & debt. The awareness of the measures of risk is extremely helpful in designing a comprehensive financial plan, investing, asset allocation etc.

Fluctuation in returns is used as a measure of risk.

Therefore, to measure risk, generally the periodic returns (daily / weekly / fortnightly / monthly) are first worked out, and then their fluctuation is measured.

The fluctuation in returns can be assessed in relation to itself, or in relation to some other index. Accordingly, the following risk measures are commonly used.

Variance

Suppose there were two stocks, with monthly returns as follows: Stock 1: 5%, 4%, 5%, 6%. Average=5%  & Stock 2: 5%, -10%, +20%, 5% Average=5%

Although both stocks have the same average returns, the periodic (monthly) returns fluctuate a lot more for Stock 2. Variance measures the fluctuation in periodic returns of a asset, as compared to its own average return. This can be easily calculated in MS Excel using the following function:

=var(range of cells where the periodic returns are calculated)

Variance as a measure of risk is relevant for both debt and equity.

Standard Deviation

Like Variance, Standard Deviation too measures the fluctuation in periodic returns of a scheme in relation to its own average return. Mathematically, standard deviation is equal to the square root of variance.

This can be easily calculated in MS Excel using the following function: =stdev(range of cells where the periodic returns are calculated)

Standard deviation as a measure of risk is relevant for both debt and equity schemes.

Beta

Beta is based on the Capital Assets Pricing Model, which states that there are two kinds of risk in investing in equities – systematic risk and non-systematic risk.

Systematic risk is integral to investing in the market; it cannot be avoided. For example, risks arising out of inflation, interest rates, political risks etc.

Non-systematic risk is unique to a company; the non-systematic risk in an equity portfolio can be minimized by diversification across companies. For example, risk arising out of change in management, product obsolescence etc.

Since non-systematic risk can be diversified away, investors need to be compensated only for systematic risk. This is measured by its Beta.

Beta measures the fluctuation in periodic returns in a scheme, as compared to fluctuation in periodic returns of a diversified stock index over the same period.

The diversified stock index, by definition, has a Beta of 1. Companies or schemes, whose beta is more than 1, are seen as more risky than the market. Beta less than 1 is indicative of a company or scheme that is less risky than the market.

Beta as a measure of risk is relevant only for equity schemes.

Modified Duration

This measures the sensitivity of value of a debt security to changes in interest rates. Higher the modified duration, higher the interest sensitive risk in a debt portfolio.

The returns in a debt portfolio are largely driven by interest rates and yield spreads.

Interest Rates

Suppose an investor has invested in a debt security that yields a return of 8%. Subsequently, yields in the market for similar securities rise to 9%. It stands to reason that the security, which was bought at 8% yield, is no longer such an attractive investment.

It will therefore lose value. Conversely, if the yields in the market go down, the debt security will gain value. Thus, there is an inverse relationship between yields and value of such debt securities which offer a fixed rate of interest.

A security of longer maturity would fluctuate a lot more, as compared to short tenor securities. Debt analysts work with a related concept called modified duration to assess how much a debt security is likely to fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates.

In a floater, when yields in the market go up, the issuer pays higher interest; lower interest is paid, when yields in the market go down. Since the interest rate itself keeps adjusting in line with the market, these floating rate debt securities tend to hold their value, despite changes in yield in the debt market.

If the portfolio manager expects interest rates to rise, then the portfolio is switched towards a higher proportion of floating rate instruments; or fixed rate instruments of shorter tenor. On the other hand, if the expectation is that interest rates would fall, then the manager increases the exposure to longer term fixed rate debt securities.

The calls that a fund manager takes on likely interest rate scenario are therefore a key determinant of the returns in a debt fund – unlike equity, where the calls on sectors and stocks are important.

Yield Spreads

Suppose an investor has invested in the debt security of a company. Subsequently, its credit rating improves. The market will now be prepared to accept a lower yield spread. Correspondingly, the value of the debt security will increase in the market.

A debt portfolio manager explores opportunities to earn gains by anticipating changes in credit quality, and changes in yield spreads between different market benchmarks in the market place.

Weighted Average Maturity

While modified duration captures interest sensitivity of a security better, it can be reasoned that longer the maturity of a debt security, higher would be its interest rate sensitivity. Extending the logic, weighted average maturity of debt securities in a scheme’s portfolio is indicative of the interest rate sensitivity of a scheme.

Being simpler to comprehend, weighted average maturity is widely used, especially in discussions with lay investors. However, a professional debt fund manager would rely on modified duration as a better measure of interest rate sensitivity. 

More on Mutual Funds

September 2012

The fallacy of believing in Stock Market Timing !!!!

The fallacy of believing in Stock Market Timing , Stock Market investing, Profits, Behavior Psychology, Economics,

Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards ~ Soren Kierkegaard

In an ideal world, one would hold stocks when they are cheap and sell them when they become expensive, put the money in bank and wait until the stocks become cheap again only to buy back and repeat the process. Cool!!!!,

Except, there is a minor hitch ~ that there is vague possibility of the above happening in a dream and that too from a good night’s sleep.

Looking back, you can always say which stocks could have been sold or bought into. But do not let this fool you into thinking that in real time, you can just get in or get out so easily.

In the financial markets, hindsight is forever 20/20, but foresight is legally blind.
And so for most investors market timing is a practical and emotional impossibility.

OK, so how about the professionals….Can they time the markets any better than the average investor. Studies have shown plain index returns have time and again beaten the (alpha searchers) mutual fund managers/analysts or market timers over a period of time. (If you avoid  them, you will also save on the various expenses which the experts charge)

Being in the Financial Markets / Financial Planning services industry , I have seen innumerable people following analysts on TV Channels, subscribing to various newsletters, online sites for the holy grail tips & trying to time the markets. However they succeed far and few BUT fail time and again. The only people who consistently make money are the information providers and the tipsters. 

Remember the opposite of TIP is PIT and that is what many traders and market timers land after burning their hands. 

Try Market timing with not more than 5-10% of your portfolio and see the results for yourself. 

For Serious investing, Timing is Nothing!!!!  Who the hell said, .. “Successful Investing is ~ Buy low and Sell high …..!!!!” Simple… Yet not easy…. Happy Investing

 

Prediction or Protection ~ Basis of Investing ~ Graham Style

Prediction , Analysis,  margin of safety concept , Basis of Value Investing, Stock Picking, Benjamin Graham Style, defensive Investor, Diversification

Basis of Investing

We invest in the present, but we invest for the future. But unfortunately the future is always uncertain 

  • Inflation and Interest rates are undependable
  • Economic Recessions come and go at random
  • Geo-political upheavals like war, commodity shortages & terrorism arrive without warning
  • fate of individual companies and their industries often turns out opposite of what investors expect.
Analysts and financial shenanigans keep busy forecasting and urging retail investors to invest based on projections.
As per Graham, though, investing on the basis of projection is a fool’s errand. He goes on to say that the forecast of so called experts are less reliable that the flip of a coin.
So, what is the alternative.
Graham goes on to suggest that it is in the best interests of the investor to invest on the basis of protection. 
What exactly is basis of protection? Well… It simply means
(1) Do not overpay for a stock and  
(2) Avoid overconfidence in your own judgement.
It’s a simple, yet a brilliant insight for successful investing ~ requires patience and discipline~ yet rarely followed and largely ignored by a vast majority of investors :
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– First, Don’t Lose… Losing some part of the money is an inevitable part of investing, and there’s nothing you can do to prevent it.
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An intelligent investor must take the responsibility upon himself to ensure that he never loses most or all of the capital whilst investing.  
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– The Risk is not in the stocks ~ Guess what ~ It is in ourselves.
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Graham expands this concept as the ‘Margin of Safety’ ~ which he has acknowledged as the core philosophy of his success….More on this concept, Risk, Investor Psychology and Uncertainly later…..

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The twelve most silliest things people say about stock prices ~ Part II

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The twelve most silliest things people say about stock prices

As I have mentioned earlier in my blog post, I have been reading ‘One up on Wall Street’ ~ Peter Lynch. The book is a classic and a must read for people interested in value investing.This Part II is in continuation to Part I (first 4 points) which you can read here

Thank you Peter Lynch for your witty points… Enjoy (points 5 through 8)….

5. Eventually they will come back

Peter Lynch gives examples of RCA which never came back even after 65 years. Companies which belonged to Health Maintenance organizations, floppy disks, double knots, digital watches, mobile homes etc could never come back.

In today’s fast paced world of technological changes, there is even a higher chance of companies fading away much faster. Intelligent investing is all about recognizing the changes happening in the industry and then exiting from the stocks, if the fundamentals no longer justify a stake in the business.

As John Keynes has so very rightly said: “When the facts change, I change my mind: What do you do? Sir”

Many investors in this category are stuck with Indian Stocks reeling in High Debt, slowing economy & pressures from Bank are unlikely to come back anytime soon. (Rcom, Rpower, Suzlon, DLF etc.) Many of these companies will have to restructure (or sell off non-operating assets, non core businesses in order to breath freely)…

Suzlon Chart (languishing at all time lows below Rs 20):

The twelve most silliest things people say about stock prices , investing mistakes, Peter Lynch, suzlon, One up on wall street book review, stock investing

6. It’s always darkest before the dawn

There’s a very human tendency to believe that things that have gotten a little bad can’t get worse.

Near home, people who are holding on to Moser Baer have not seen the stock price appreciate a zilch over the past decade.

Moser Baer Chart over the past few years :

Moser Baer Stock Price, Worst Stock Performance India, Investment Mistakes, Technology Stocks, Investing , Trading

Similarly the oil marketing companies have given no returns to the investors over the past decade. (Of course, part of this is due to the policies of the government of regulated oil prices in India).

Sometimes, it is darkest before the dawn, but then again other times is always darkest before pitch black.

7. When it rebounds to Rs 100, I’ll sell

In my experience, no downtrodden stock ever returns to the price at which you decide to exit.

When the stock of Suzlon was falling freely in early 2009 onwards, many investors got sucked into the stock at various levels above Rs 100. Subsequently, the stock kept on going South.

In the equity markets, the investors in general are always in a hurry to take the profits off the table. However when, it comes to taking out the losses, they rely on HOPE.

Again, here when we talk about taking out the losses, it is of the companies which are weak on fundamentals.  In case of Suzlon, currently trading at Rs 18, unless a miraculous turnaround happens, it might not see the 3 digit mark for a fairly long time to come.  The whole painful process may take a couple of years, maybe a decade. And all along you have to tolerate an investment you don’t even like.

Relying on luck way too often in the markets is a sure way to lose money in the long run. If you are less confident on the company, you ought to be selling the stock.

8. The ‘I knew it, If only I could have bought the stock, I could made so much money’ statement

So many investors make this classic mistake.

‘ I knew it…. Colgate, Pidilite, Hawkins, Jubilant Foodworks, HDFC, Titan, Tata Motors etc would rise….If only I could have bought the stock, I could made so much money’ statement’

They torture themselves every day by perusing the ‘Ten biggest winners on the markets’ and imagining how much money they’ve lost by not having owned them.

However the funny thing, the money is still in the bank . They have not lost a penny. This may seem ridiculous thing to mention. But it is notional. Regarding somebody’s else’s gain as your losses is definitely not a productive way to investing in the markets.

In fact, it can lead to blunders, trying to catch up buying stocks which they shouldn’t be buying, and buying the stocks at higher prices in order to get over the guilt. And guess what, this results in real losses.

Part I is here, Part III is here