Stocks, Mutual Funds, Etf's etc

January 2017

The twelve most silliest things people say about stock prices ~ Part III

value investing, Peter Lynch Quotes, Pictures, Common Mistakes, Speculation, Trading, Gains, Losses, Indian Stock Markets  “All you need for a lifetime of successful investing is a few big winners, and the pluses from those will overwhelm the minuses from the stocks that don’t work out” ~ Peter Lynch ~ One up  on Wall Street.

 I have been reading ‘One up on Wall Street’ ~ Peter Lynch. The book is a classic and a must read for people interested in value investing.

This Part III is in continuation to earlier parts and thus completes the twelve most silliest things people say about stock prices as mentioned in the book. 

The earlier posts cover the previous 8 points of the common mistakes committed by investors which you can read here : Part I & Part II

I hope this trilogy will help you in your investing journey.

Thank you Peter Lynch for the wonderful book and  common sensical approach to stock investing.  Enjoy (points 9 through 12)….

9. What me worry, Conservative Stocks do not fluctuate much…
Peter Lynch gives examples of Utility Companies. Two generations of investors grew up on the idea that they could not go wrong with the Utility stocks. You could just put them in safety deposit and cash the dividend checks. However with the nuclear and the base rate problems, suddenly the nuclear plants became expensive and stocks fluctuated wildly over a couple of years.

Companies are dynamic and prospects change. There simply isn’t a stock that you can own and you can afford to ignore.

Near home, FMCG Stocks have always been considered conservative stocks with relatively low beta and good dividends. However, over the past 2 years most of the FMCG stocks have considerably outperformed the index. The valuations are stretched and stocks have literally become multi baggers. Can these stocks be considered be conservative any longer? Is anybody’s guess….

10. It’s taking too long for anything to happen
“PostDivesture Flourish”, a term coined by Peter Lynch, which means that after considerably waiting for a stock to do something, you give up, and when you finally sell the stock, the price of the stock starts to flourish and move northwards.

I have experienced this when I gave up on LIC Housing Finance in mid 2009 after holding the stock for almost 3 years. The stock went up almost 5 times in the next 2 years.
Learning ~ Do not give up on the stock if all is well with the company and the reasons for which I bought the stock have not changed.

The stock markets tests patience and rewards conviction.

It takes remarkable patience to hold on to an idea / stock that excites you, but which the market largely ignores. You begin to think everyone else is right, and you are wrong. But remember, where the fundamentals are promising, patience is more often than not ~ rewarded.

11. I missed that one, I will catch the next one
This is such a common mistake committed by a large number of investors.
Page Industries is one such stock, which has given phenomenal returns to investors over the past 3 years, and continues to do so. Investors who missed out on Page Industries are trying to catch onto other seemingly similar stocks like Lovable Lingerie.

This is a mistake because the performance of Page Industries is based on various factors like the company management, capital structure, earnings growth, streamlined and strategic supply chain, brand image, brand power and brand recall value, customer loyalty, vendor relationships, pricing power etc which is difficult for another company to imitate. The other company should be judged on it’s own merit for investment purposes.

It’s always better to buy the original good company at a higher price than to jump on to the next one at a bargain price. (Same logic applies when buying real estate as well…. I will talk about my views on real estate some other time though…)

12. The stock’s gone up, so I must be right or Vice Versa.
Peter Lynch terms this as the single greatest fallacy of investing. Believing that when the stock price is up, then you’ve made a good investment. Investors confuse prices with prospects.

If you purchase a stock at Rs 100 and it moves up to Rs 105, investors take comfort from this fact, as if it proves the wisdom of their purchase. Nothing could be further from truth. Investors commit mistakes based on this fallacy ~ Either selling a good company at a loss, believing that they committed a mistake or holding on to bad apples if the prices are up post the purchase.

Remember the Stock does not know that you own it.
Unless you are a short term trade looking for 20 odd % gains /loss the short-term fanfare means absolutely nothing.
A stocks going up or down after you buy only indicates that there was someone who was willing to pay more or less for the identical merchandise. That’s it

You can read the earlier posts here :  Part I & Part II 

With this I lay to rest the 12 mistakes committed by investors with the hopes that you, can avoid these common mistakes and in the process become a successful investor.

Happy Investing!!!

The Golden Rules for Investing

10 rules for investing, Risk, Compounding, SIP, Greed, Fear, Taxes, Tips, Value Investing, Personal Finance, Financial Planning

The Golden Rules of Investing are essentially a common sensical approach which largely comes down to the emotional aspects such as Discipline, Patience, Greed & Fear. 

Remember these 10 golden rules of Investing.

1. Risk is inevitable – What is Risk?  Understanding Risk is the first part and then learning to Manage it. 
2. Start early – Benefit from compounding. Einstein has acknowledged Compounding as the 8th wonder of the world.
3. Have realistic expectations – Greed is bad. How much is too much. You never know what is enough, until you know what is more than enough.
4. Invest regularly – Not even God can time the markets. Timing/Forecasting the markets is an illusion.
5. Stay Invested – Be a marathon runner. Markets tests patience and rewards conviction.
6. Don’t churn your investments – It only increases costs. If you like gambling, go to a casino. For serious investing, stay put.
7. Spread your corpus – Each investment class is important. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. 
8. Sell your losers – Hope doesn’t make money, Wisdom does. We are biased against actions that lead to regret. People attach too much weight to gains and losses rather than wealth. 
9. Hot tips usually burn your investments – Avoid them. Remember the reverse of TIP is PIT. So a tip usually dumps you in a PIT almost always. 
10. Taxes are important – But not at the cost of a bad investment. Only Death and Taxes are certain, true ~ But don’t make bad investments just to save tax. Don’t be Penny Wise Pound Foolish.

Happy Investing

June 2016

Types of Investors – What type are you?

Types of Investors , Conservative, Aggressive, Risk taker, Risk Profiling, Risk Averse, Savers, Specialists, Speculators

I came across this good article at http://www.threetypes.com/philosophy/investor-types.shtml and wanted to share. It essentially discusses the various types of Investors viz : Savers, Speculators and Specialists and then goes on to explain how becoming a Specialist, is something which generates immense wealth over lesser periods of time , but which also requires tremendous efforts on the part of the investor.

Go ahead and decide which type of investor you are and then invest accordingly. Enjoy Investing…..

Savers

Savers are those people who spend the majority of their life slowly growing their “nest egg” in order to ensure a comfortable retirement. Savers explicitly choose not to focus their time on investing or investment strategy; they either entrust others to dictate their investments (money managers or financial planners) or they simply diversify their investments across a number of different asset classes (they create “a diversified portfolio”). For those who create a diversified portfolio, their primary investing strategy is to hedge each of their investments with other “non-correlated” investments, and ultimately generate a consistent annual return in the range of 3-8% (after adjusting for inflation). Those who entrust their money to professional money managers generally get the same level of diversification, and the same 3-8% returns (minus the management fees).

Savers seek low-risk growth of their capital, and in return, are willing to accept a relatively low rate of return. While there is certainly nothing wrong with striving for consistent returns, what the Saver is doing is really no different than putting their money in a Certificate of Deposit, albeit with slightly higher returns. The bulk of Savers are investing for long-term financial security and retirement. They start saving in their 20’s and 30’s by putting money in 401(k) accounts, mutual funds, and other diversified investments, and in 30 or 40 years, they have enough to retire on.

Savers rely in a single force to grow their capital: time. Because their rate of return is generally consistent, a Saver’s primary mechanism to achieve wealth is to invest and wait. In fact, Savers often use The Rule of 72 to calculate long-term investment growth and plan their retirement. While passive investing is an almost surefire path to a comfortable retirement, it also generally means 30-50 years of work to get to that point.

Speculators

Unlike Savers, Speculators choose to take control of their investments, and not rely solely on “time” to get to the point of financial independence. Speculators are happy to forgo the relatively low returns of a diversified portfolio in order to try to achieve the much higher returns of targeted investments. Instead of just spreading their money across stock funds, bonds, real estate funds, and a variety of other asset categories, Speculators are always looking for an investing edge. Perhaps they get a hot stock tip and try to cash in on the next Google. Or perhaps they hear about all the real estate investors who have made a bundle flipping houses, so they go out and buy the first run-down house they see.

Speculators recognize that they can have higher returns than Savers, and are willing to do or try anything to get those returns. They’re not scared to throw some money in an Options account and try their hand at derivatives trading; or run out and buy a bunch of inventory from a wholesaler they know and open up an eBay selling account. Speculators are always looking for the next great investment; for them, it’s all about being in the right place at the right time, and taking a chance on getting rich. If today’s investment doesn’t work out, there will always be another one tomorrow. (more…)