The Illusion of prediction ~ Hindsight BiasKapil
Everything makes sense in hindsight, a fact that financial pundits exploit every evening as they offer convincing accounts of the day’s events.
And this Illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future. The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained. This is especially true in the financial markets.